Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 35.898729 42.539396 49.852079 58.473256 68.328554 79.211856 92.107443
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 26.875944 35.847255 46.709540 60.699855 78.098013 98.869958 125.377598
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 21.037575 30.827292 43.592489 61.176752 84.449402 113.843131 153.367325
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.360154 26.081063 39.613711 59.368362 86.925495 123.391084 174.558004
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 13.549581 23.271313 37.600112 59.580844 91.628156 135.700537 199.725069
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.583361 21.297075 36.371691 60.537982 97.158835 149.221159 227.123193
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 8.931812 17.709966 32.123657 56.352155 94.600972 150.899640 237.758545
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.909703 16.667138 31.707678 57.946834 100.700940 165.322829 267.357562
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.700834 15.056075 30.094790 57.353177 103.219059 174.419363 289.466751
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.335061 14.967167 31.078564 61.147183 112.986448 195.084822 330.038912
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.079324 12.866963 28.145392 57.812023 110.652877 196.590954 341.093007
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.612821 12.326305 28.041788 59.474628 116.827148 211.936803 374.517604
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.209250 11.942194 28.371837 62.318470 125.900465 233.576249 420.913896
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.789728 11.452425 28.459580 64.794124 134.686943 255.584449 469.681676
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.267246 10.583071 27.609117 65.311197 139.913498 271.863669 509.892996
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.660009 9.326385 25.691761 63.400626 140.364760 279.826496 536.472120
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.287938 8.606830 24.861970 63.625430 144.863710 295.116656 576.294283
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.013586 8.094015 24.430961 64.637404 150.951222 313.568128 622.490625
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.529139 6.764029 21.725901 60.210807 145.627117 310.686245 630.739544
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.377290 6.487097 21.686368 61.897528 153.038479 331.973904 683.378039
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.161798 5.909144 20.727616 61.269652 155.469350 343.883831 719.445214
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.123329 5.989091 21.627200 65.281430 168.220483 376.393055 794.984617
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.871983 5.122822 19.619303 61.754951 164.074163 375.542881 808.144685